Research Article

Political Variability and Security Dilemma: A Critical Analysis of Security Infrastructure in Post Conflict South Sudan (2011-2021)

Abstract

The study examined how political variability, security dilemma and associated organized violence impacted the lives of South Sudanese citizens. It’s does this examination through the employment of mixed method research design, underpinned by a pragmatic philosophical stance, to measure and understand a deep and nuanced of the complex socio-political dynamics. The primary method of data collection consisted of in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 55 key stakeholders drawn from five distinct categories: government officials 12 (21.8%), military and security leaders 10 (18.2%), political leaders 11 (20%), civil society and community leaders 12 (21.8%), and international actors 10 (18.2%). The secondary method of data collection involved distribution of 370 questionnaires. The study deployed purposive and stratified sampling strategy which ensured a comprehensive range of perspectives. The study found that political variability and the security dilemma were not separate phenomena but a single, self-reinforcing cycle with devastating consequences. The security dilemma manifested itself as a pervasive climate of mistrust that fueled pre-emptive militarization, undermined all peacebuilding processes like Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) and Security Sector Reform (SSR), and created an environment where organized violence and predation by security actors became normalized. Besides, the study identified the agency of political and security leaders as the central variable; their personalized and unaccountable mode of rule was the primary mechanism perpetuating the crisis, yet they also possessed the unique capacity to initiate reform when subjected to sufficient internal and external pressures. The political variability and the security dilemma were found to be mutually constitutive, creating a vicious cycle that has hollowed out the state and broken the social contract. The study concludes that sustainable peace cannot be achieved through technical peacebuilding interventions alone, but requires a fundamental political transformation that alters the incentive structures for the elite, enforces accountability, and rebuilds state legitimacy from the ground up. The agency of leaders, for better or for worse, was identified as the ultimate determinant of the nation’s trajectory. Based on the findings, the study recommended a holistic, multi-layered strategy encapsulated in the proposed ”Framework for Mitigating Political Variability and Overcoming the Security Dilemma (MPV-OSD Framework)”.